CFBS Seminar Series - Re-designing New Zealand Police’s Risk Assessment Instruments for Family Violence

New Zealand Police uses two instruments, the Static Assessment of Family Violence Recidivism (SAFVR) and the Dynamic Risk Assessment (DYRA), to inform frontline safety actions. The SAFVR’s predictive ability is moderate, whereas the DYRA’s predictive ability is only slightly better than chance, and there are concerns about its implementation fidelity. Accordingly, New Zealand Police commenced a project to evaluate and re-design these instruments. I examined the predictive validity of 18,348 DYRA and SAFVR assessments for recurrence (i.e., a further family violence-related report to police) and offences within 90 days for a sample of episodes reported between 1 July 2023–30 June 2024. Both instruments were better at ruling out low-risk cases than correctly identifying cases with a reported recurrence or offence. Improvements in predictive validity gained by adding the best three DYRA items to the SAFVR were so small that they were unlikely to lead to improved prediction in practice, compared with using the SAFVR alone. Hence, the DYRA items and scoring protocol require revision to improve the instrument’s ability to inform frontline safety actions. New Zealand Police are actioning my recommendations, with a commitment to further evaluation and improvement over the next 3-4 years. 

Presenter

Dr Apriel D. Jolliffe Simpson  - Lecturer